Hainan Star 2–1 Quanzhou Yassin: Result & Stats

Hainan Star

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Quanzhou Yassin

5/24/2023

League Two · Round 4Mission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Hainan Star47%

×Draw26%

Quanzhou Yassin27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hainan StarExpected goals in this matchQuanzhou Yassin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.02

Hainan Star

1.45

Quanzhou Yassin

1.02

Hainan Star creates 42% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 47 away

1.11

creates per match

0.77

1.28

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Hainan Star

1.11

Quanzhou Yassin

0.77

allows per match

Hainan Star

1.28

Quanzhou Yassin

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw

73%

Hainan Star or Quanzhou Yassin

74%

Draw or Quanzhou Yassin

53%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+

23%

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals

77%

Hainan Star 2+ goals

42%

Hainan Star 3+ goals

18%

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

64%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

27%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)

64%

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.45

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hainan Star scores more

47%

level

26%

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

27%

Hainan Star at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hainan Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff