Hainan Star 3–1 Nantong Haimen Codion

Hainan Star

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nantong Haimen Codion

10/9/2023

League Two · Relegation Round - 6Mission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Hainan Star33%

×Draw27%

Nantong Haimen Codion40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hainan StarExpected goals in this matchNantong Haimen Codion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.32

Hainan Star

1.16

Nantong Haimen Codion

1.32

Nantong Haimen Codion creates 14% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 55 away

1.11

creates per match

1.36

1.28

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Hainan Star

1.11

Nantong Haimen Codion

1.36

allows per match

Hainan Star

1.28

Nantong Haimen Codion

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par

Nantong Haimen Codion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

Nantong Haimen Codion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw

60%

Hainan Star or Nantong Haimen Codion

73%

Draw or Nantong Haimen Codion

67%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+

13%

Nantong Haimen Codion wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals

69%

Hainan Star 2+ goals

32%

Hainan Star 3+ goals

11%

Nantong Haimen Codion 1+ goals

73%

Nantong Haimen Codion 2+ goals

38%

Nantong Haimen Codion 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)

45%

Nantong Haimen Codion (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Nantong Haimen Codion away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Nantong Haimen Codion defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Nantong Haimen Codion attack 1.36 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hainan Star scores more

33%

level

27%

Nantong Haimen Codion scores more

40%

Nantong Haimen Codion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nantong Haimen Codion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff