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Hainan Star vs Jiangxi Liansheng — League Two 2022

Hainan Star
Hainan Star
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jiangxi Liansheng
Jiangxi Liansheng
9/27/2025League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Group - 5Yunnan Coerver Football Training Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Hainan Star30%
×Draw28%
Jiangxi Liansheng41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hainan Star
1.03
Jiangxi Liansheng
1.25

Jiangxi Liansheng creates 21% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 22 away

creates per match

Hainan Star
1.11
Jiangxi Liansheng
1.23

allows per match

Hainan Star
1.28
Jiangxi Liansheng
0.95

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par
Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

Jiangxi Liansheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw
59%
Hainan Star or Jiangxi Liansheng
72%
Draw or Jiangxi Liansheng
70%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+
11%
Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals
64%
Hainan Star 2+ goals
28%
Hainan Star 3+ goals
9%
Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals
71%
Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals
36%
Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)
42%
Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Jiangxi Liansheng away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.03

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 1.23 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hainan Star scores more
30%
level
28%
Jiangxi Liansheng scores more
41%

Jiangxi Liansheng at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jiangxi Liansheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hainan Star vs Jiangxi Liansheng

Hainan Star beat Jiangxi Liansheng 2-0 in League Two on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Yunnan Coerver Football Training Base Stadium in Kunming.