Hainan Star 2–1 Hubei Chufeng Heli: Result & Stats

Hainan Star

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Hubei Chufeng Heli

10/5/2024

League Two · Relegation Round - 8Mission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Hainan Star38%

×Draw27%

Hubei Chufeng Heli35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hainan StarExpected goals in this matchHubei Chufeng Heli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.19

Hainan Star

1.26

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 56 away

1.11

creates per match

1.09

1.28

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Hainan Star

1.11

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.09

allows per match

Hainan Star

1.28

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par

Hubei Chufeng Heli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

Hubei Chufeng Heli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw

65%

Hainan Star or Hubei Chufeng Heli

73%

Draw or Hubei Chufeng Heli

62%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+

17%

Hubei Chufeng Heli wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals

72%

Hainan Star 2+ goals

36%

Hainan Star 3+ goals

13%

Hubei Chufeng Heli 1+ goals

70%

Hubei Chufeng Heli 2+ goals

33%

Hubei Chufeng Heli 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)

52%

Hubei Chufeng Heli (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Hubei Chufeng Heli away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Hubei Chufeng Heli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.26

Hubei Chufeng Heli attack 1.09 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hainan Star scores more

38%

level

27%

Hubei Chufeng Heli scores more

35%

Hainan Star at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hainan Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff