Hainan Star 0–2 Guangzhou E-Power: Result & Stats

Hainan Star

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Guangzhou E-Power

4/15/2024

League Two · Round 5Mission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hainan Star24%

×Draw27%

Guangzhou E-Power49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hainan StarExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou E-Power

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.43

Hainan Star

0.91

Guangzhou E-Power

1.43

Guangzhou E-Power creates 57% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 14 away

1.11

creates per match

1.57

1.28

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Hainan Star

1.11

Guangzhou E-Power

1.57

allows per match

Hainan Star

1.28

Guangzhou E-Power

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par

Guangzhou E-Power+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

Guangzhou E-Power →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw

51%

Hainan Star or Guangzhou E-Power

73%

Draw or Guangzhou E-Power

76%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+

8%

Guangzhou E-Power wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals

60%

Hainan Star 2+ goals

23%

Hainan Star 3+ goals

6%

Guangzhou E-Power 1+ goals

76%

Guangzhou E-Power 2+ goals

42%

Guangzhou E-Power 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)

33%

Guangzhou E-Power (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Guangzhou E-Power away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Guangzhou E-Power defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Guangzhou E-Power attack 1.57 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hainan Star scores more

24%

level

27%

Guangzhou E-Power scores more

49%

Guangzhou E-Power at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guangzhou E-Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff