Hainan Star vs Guangdong Mingtu — League Two 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
Hainan Star39%
Guangdong Mingtu32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hainan Star creates 13% more chances
Season form · 47 home / 23 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hainan Star ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches
Guangdong Mingtu away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Guangdong Mingtu defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21
Guangdong Mingtu attack 0.87 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Hainan Star at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Hainan Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hainan Star host Guangdong Mingtu on Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 08:00. The match is part of the League Two 2026/2027 season.
League Two: Hainan Star 0–0 Guangdong Mingtu
Hainan Star and Guangdong Mingtu drew 0-0 in League Two on May 17, 2025.
The match was played at Yunnan Kehua Football Training Base Stadium in Kunming.