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Hainan Star vs Chengdu Rongcheng II — League Two 2022

Hainan Star
Hainan Star
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chengdu Rongcheng II
Chengdu Rongcheng II
7/1/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 17Yunnan Kehua Football Training Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hainan Star33%
×Draw28%
Chengdu Rongcheng II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hainan Star
1.10
Chengdu Rongcheng II
1.21

Chengdu Rongcheng II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 23 away

creates per match

Hainan Star
1.11
Chengdu Rongcheng II
1.13

allows per match

Hainan Star
1.28
Chengdu Rongcheng II
1.09

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par
Chengdu Rongcheng II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

Chengdu Rongcheng II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw
61%
Hainan Star or Chengdu Rongcheng II
72%
Draw or Chengdu Rongcheng II
67%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+
13%
Chengdu Rongcheng II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals
67%
Hainan Star 2+ goals
30%
Hainan Star 3+ goals
10%
Chengdu Rongcheng II 1+ goals
70%
Chengdu Rongcheng II 2+ goals
34%
Chengdu Rongcheng II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)
46%
Chengdu Rongcheng II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Chengdu Rongcheng II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Chengdu Rongcheng II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Chengdu Rongcheng II attack 1.13 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hainan Star scores more
33%
level
28%
Chengdu Rongcheng II scores more
39%

Chengdu Rongcheng II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chengdu Rongcheng II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hainan Star vs Chengdu Rongcheng II

Chengdu Rongcheng II beat Hainan Star 1-0 in League Two on July 1, 2025.

The match was played at Yunnan Kehua Football Training Base Stadium in Kunming.