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Hainan Star vs BIT — League Two 2022

Hainan Star
Hainan Star
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
BIT
BIT
9/25/2024League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 4Mission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Hainan Star41%
×Draw28%
BIT32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hainan Star
1.28
BIT
1.09

Hainan Star creates 17% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 47 away

creates per match

Hainan Star
1.11
BIT
0.91

allows per match

Hainan Star
1.28
BIT
1.45

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par
BIT+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

BIT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw
68%
Hainan Star or BIT
72%
Draw or BIT
59%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+
18%
BIT wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals
72%
Hainan Star 2+ goals
37%
Hainan Star 3+ goals
14%
BIT 1+ goals
66%
BIT 2+ goals
30%
BIT 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)
56%
BIT (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

BIT away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.45 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + BIT defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.28

BIT attack 0.91 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hainan Star scores more
41%
level
28%
BIT scores more
32%

Hainan Star at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hainan Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hainan Star vs BIT

BIT beat Hainan Star 2-1 in League Two on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Haikou.