Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Haidob En Nahud vs Tuti — Sudani Premier League 2019

Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
FT
1 – 0
Tuti
Tuti
3/22/2023Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 24El-Nahud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Haidob En Nahud47%
×Draw29%
Tuti24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haidob En Nahud
1.27
Tuti
0.81

Haidob En Nahud creates 57% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 44 away

creates per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.29
Tuti
0.84

allows per match

Haidob En Nahud
0.79
Tuti
1.25

finishing

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par
Tuti+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haidob En Nahud ↓

Tuti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Haidob En Nahud or draw
76%
Haidob En Nahud or Tuti
71%
Draw or Tuti
53%

Winning margin

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
22%
Tuti wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
72%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
36%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
14%
Tuti 1+ goals
56%
Tuti 2+ goals
19%
Tuti 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
67%
Tuti (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haidob En Nahud at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

Tuti away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.29 + Tuti defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tuti attack 0.84 + Haidob En Nahud defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Haidob En Nahud scores more
47%
level
29%
Tuti scores more
24%

Haidob En Nahud at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haidob En Nahud vs Tuti

Haidob En Nahud beat Tuti 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on March 22, 2023.

The match was played at El-Nahud Stadium in En Nahud.