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Haidob En Nahud vs Alamal Atbara — Sudani Premier League 2019

Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
FT
1 – 0
Alamal Atbara
Alamal Atbara
12/20/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 15El-Nahud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Haidob En Nahud46%
×Draw29%
Alamal Atbara25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haidob En Nahud
1.27
Alamal Atbara
0.84

Haidob En Nahud creates 51% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 86 away

creates per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.29
Alamal Atbara
0.90

allows per match

Haidob En Nahud
0.79
Alamal Atbara
1.24

finishing

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par
Alamal Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haidob En Nahud ↓

Alamal Atbara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Haidob En Nahud or draw
75%
Haidob En Nahud or Alamal Atbara
71%
Draw or Alamal Atbara
54%

Winning margin

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
21%
Alamal Atbara wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
72%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
36%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
14%
Alamal Atbara 1+ goals
57%
Alamal Atbara 2+ goals
21%
Alamal Atbara 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
65%
Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haidob En Nahud at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

Alamal Atbara away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.29 + Alamal Atbara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Alamal Atbara attack 0.90 + Haidob En Nahud defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Haidob En Nahud scores more
46%
level
29%
Alamal Atbara scores more
25%

Haidob En Nahud at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haidob En Nahud vs Alamal Atbara

Haidob En Nahud beat Alamal Atbara 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on December 20, 2022.

The match was played at El-Nahud Stadium in En Nahud.