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Haidob En Nahud vs Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba — Sudani Premier League 2025

Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1/15/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Haidob En Nahud40%
×Draw27%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haidob En Nahud
1.31
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.14

Haidob En Nahud creates 15% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.30
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.08

allows per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.20
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.33

finishing

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haidob En Nahud ↓

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Haidob En Nahud or draw
68%
Haidob En Nahud or Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
73%
Draw or Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
60%

Winning margin

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
18%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
73%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
38%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
14%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 1+ goals
68%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 2+ goals
32%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
56%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haidob En Nahud at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.30 + Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba attack 1.08 + Haidob En Nahud defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Haidob En Nahud scores more
40%
level
27%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba scores more
32%

Haidob En Nahud at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Haidob En Nahud 2–0 Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba

Haidob En Nahud beat Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 15, 2026.