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Haidob En Nahud vs Al Hilal Port Sudan — Sudani Premier League 2019

Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
FT
1 – 0
Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
10/29/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 5El-Nahud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Haidob En Nahud39%
×Draw29%
Al Hilal Port Sudan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haidob En Nahud
1.16
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.00

Haidob En Nahud creates 16% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 57 away

creates per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.29
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.21

allows per match

Haidob En Nahud
0.79
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.02

finishing

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par
Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haidob En Nahud ↓

Al Hilal Port Sudan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Haidob En Nahud or draw
69%
Haidob En Nahud or Al Hilal Port Sudan
71%
Draw or Al Hilal Port Sudan
61%

Winning margin

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
17%
Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
69%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
32%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
11%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
63%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
26%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
56%
Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haidob En Nahud at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.29 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.21 + Haidob En Nahud defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Haidob En Nahud scores more
39%
level
29%
Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
31%

Haidob En Nahud at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Haidob En Nahud 1–0 Al Hilal Port Sudan

Haidob En Nahud beat Al Hilal Port Sudan 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at El-Nahud Stadium in En Nahud.