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Haidob En Nahud vs Al Fallah — Sudani Premier League 2019

Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
FT
0 – 0
Al Fallah
Al Fallah
12/24/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 16El-Nahud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Haidob En Nahud52%
×Draw29%
Al Fallah19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haidob En Nahud
1.32
Al Fallah
0.67

Haidob En Nahud creates 97% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 40 away

creates per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.29
Al Fallah
0.55

allows per match

Haidob En Nahud
0.79
Al Fallah
1.35

finishing

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par
Al Fallah+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haidob En Nahud ↓

Al Fallah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Haidob En Nahud or draw
81%
Haidob En Nahud or Al Fallah
71%
Draw or Al Fallah
48%

Winning margin

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
25%
Al Fallah wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
73%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
38%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
15%
Al Fallah 1+ goals
49%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
15%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
73%
Al Fallah (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haidob En Nahud at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

Al Fallah away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.35 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.29 + Al Fallah defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al Fallah attack 0.55 + Haidob En Nahud defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Haidob En Nahud scores more
52%
level
29%
Al Fallah scores more
19%

Haidob En Nahud at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Haidob En Nahud 0–0 Al Fallah

Haidob En Nahud and Al Fallah drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on December 24, 2022.

The match was played at El-Nahud Stadium in En Nahud.