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Haidob En Nahud vs Al Ahly Shendi — Sudani Premier League 2019

Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
FT
2 – 1
Al Ahly Shendi
Al Ahly Shendi
2/25/2023Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 19El-Nahud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Haidob En Nahud43%
×Draw31%
Al Ahly Shendi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haidob En Nahud
1.10
Al Ahly Shendi
0.78

Haidob En Nahud creates 41% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 75 away

creates per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.29
Al Ahly Shendi
0.76

allows per match

Haidob En Nahud
0.79
Al Ahly Shendi
0.91

finishing

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par
Al Ahly Shendi+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haidob En Nahud ↓

Al Ahly Shendi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Haidob En Nahud or draw
74%
Haidob En Nahud or Al Ahly Shendi
69%
Draw or Al Ahly Shendi
57%

Winning margin

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
18%
Al Ahly Shendi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
67%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
30%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
10%
Al Ahly Shendi 1+ goals
54%
Al Ahly Shendi 2+ goals
18%
Al Ahly Shendi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
62%
Al Ahly Shendi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haidob En Nahud at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

Al Ahly Shendi away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.91 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.29 + Al Ahly Shendi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.10

Al Ahly Shendi attack 0.76 + Haidob En Nahud defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Haidob En Nahud scores more
43%
level
31%
Al Ahly Shendi scores more
26%

Haidob En Nahud at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haidob En Nahud vs Al Ahly Shendi

Haidob En Nahud beat Al Ahly Shendi 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at El-Nahud Stadium in En Nahud.