Hai Phong 2–1 Thanh Hóa: Result & Stats

Hai Phong

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Thanh Hóa

5/16/2025

V.League 1 · Round 23Sân vận động Lạch Tray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Hai Phong47%

×Draw26%

Thanh Hóa27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hai PhongExpected goals in this matchThanh Hóa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.07

Hai Phong

1.50

Thanh Hóa

1.07

Hai Phong creates 40% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 86 away

1.55

creates per match

0.98

1.16

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Hai Phong

1.55

Thanh Hóa

0.98

allows per match

Hai Phong

1.16

Thanh Hóa

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hai Phong+0.00on par

Thanh Hóa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hai Phong ↓

Thanh Hóa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hai Phong or draw

73%

Hai Phong or Thanh Hóa

74%

Draw or Thanh Hóa

53%

Winning margin

Hai Phong wins by 2+

24%

Thanh Hóa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hai Phong 1+ goals

78%

Hai Phong 2+ goals

44%

Hai Phong 3+ goals

19%

Thanh Hóa 1+ goals

66%

Thanh Hóa 2+ goals

29%

Thanh Hóa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hai Phong (draw refunded)

64%

Thanh Hóa (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hai Phong at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.16 · 88 matches

Thanh Hóa away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hai Phong attack 1.55 + Thanh Hóa defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Thanh Hóa attack 0.98 + Hai Phong defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hai Phong scores more

47%

level

26%

Thanh Hóa scores more

27%

Hai Phong at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hai Phong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff