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Hai Phong vs Song Lam Nghe An — V.League 1 2019

Hai Phong
Hai Phong
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe An
8/27/2025V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 3Sân vận động Lạch Tray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Hai Phong49%
×Draw25%
Song Lam Nghe An25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hai Phong
1.55
Song Lam Nghe An
1.03

Hai Phong creates 50% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 88 away

creates per match

Hai Phong
1.55
Song Lam Nghe An
0.90

allows per match

Hai Phong
1.16
Song Lam Nghe An
1.55

finishing

Hai Phong+0.00on par
Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hai Phong ↓

Song Lam Nghe An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hai Phong or draw
75%
Hai Phong or Song Lam Nghe An
75%
Draw or Song Lam Nghe An
51%

Winning margin

Hai Phong wins by 2+
25%
Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hai Phong 1+ goals
79%
Hai Phong 2+ goals
46%
Hai Phong 3+ goals
20%
Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
64%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
28%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hai Phong (draw refunded)
66%
Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hai Phong at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.16 · 88 matches

Song Lam Nghe An away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.55 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hai Phong attack 1.55 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.55

Song Lam Nghe An attack 0.90 + Hai Phong defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hai Phong scores more
49%
level
25%
Song Lam Nghe An scores more
25%

Hai Phong at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hai Phong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Hai Phong 2–0 Song Lam Nghe An

Hai Phong beat Song Lam Nghe An 2-0 in V.League 1 on August 27, 2025.

The match was played at Sân vận động Lạch Tray in Haiphong.