Hai Phong 3–0 PSM Makassar: Result & Stats

Hai Phong

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

PSM Makassar

9/21/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Sân vận động Lạch Tray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hai Phong61%

×Draw19%

PSM Makassar20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hai PhongExpected goals in this matchPSM Makassar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.33

Hai Phong

2.44

PSM Makassar

1.33

Hai Phong creates 83% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

3.33

creates per match

2.00

0.67

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Hai Phong

3.33

PSM Makassar

2.00

allows per match

Hai Phong

0.67

PSM Makassar

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hai Phong+0.00on par

PSM Makassar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hai Phong ↓

PSM Makassar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Hai Phong or draw

80%

Hai Phong or PSM Makassar

81%

Draw or PSM Makassar

39%

Winning margin

Hai Phong wins by 2+

40%

PSM Makassar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hai Phong 1+ goals

91%

Hai Phong 2+ goals

70%

Hai Phong 3+ goals

43%

PSM Makassar 1+ goals

74%

PSM Makassar 2+ goals

38%

PSM Makassar 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hai Phong (draw refunded)

76%

PSM Makassar (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hai Phong at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

PSM Makassar away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hai Phong attack 3.33 + PSM Makassar defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.44

PSM Makassar attack 2.00 + Hai Phong defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hai Phong scores more

61%

level

19%

PSM Makassar scores more

20%

Hai Phong at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hai Phong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff