Hai Phong 1–3 Công An Nhân Dân: Result & Stats

Hai Phong

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Công An Nhân Dân

4/22/2025

Cup · Quarter-finalsSân vận động Lạch Tray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hai Phong30%

×Draw21%

Công An Nhân Dân49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hai PhongExpected goals in this matchCông An Nhân Dân

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

2.08

Hai Phong

1.58

Công An Nhân Dân

2.08

Công An Nhân Dân creates 32% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

2.17

2.00

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Hai Phong

1.33

Công An Nhân Dân

2.17

allows per match

Hai Phong

2.00

Công An Nhân Dân

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hai Phong+0.00on par

Công An Nhân Dân+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hai Phong ↓

Công An Nhân Dân →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Hai Phong or draw

51%

Hai Phong or Công An Nhân Dân

79%

Draw or Công An Nhân Dân

70%

Winning margin

Hai Phong wins by 2+

14%

Công An Nhân Dân wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Hai Phong 1+ goals

79%

Hai Phong 2+ goals

47%

Hai Phong 3+ goals

21%

Công An Nhân Dân 1+ goals

87%

Công An Nhân Dân 2+ goals

61%

Công An Nhân Dân 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Hai Phong (draw refunded)

38%

Công An Nhân Dân (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hai Phong at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Công An Nhân Dân away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hai Phong attack 1.33 + Công An Nhân Dân defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Công An Nhân Dân attack 2.17 + Hai Phong defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hai Phong scores more

30%

level

21%

Công An Nhân Dân scores more

49%

Công An Nhân Dân at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Công An Nhân Dân will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff