Hai Phong 4–2 Binh Duong: Result & Stats

Hai Phong

FT

4 – 2

HT: 4 – 0

Binh Duong

Lucao 44', 38'

B. Bissainthe 19'

Luong Hoang Nam 4'

Nguyen Tien Linh 90+3', 69'

6/15/2025

V.League 1 · Round 25Sân vận động Lạch Tray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Hai Phong48%

×Draw26%

Binh Duong27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hai PhongExpected goals in this matchBinh Duong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.08

Hai Phong

1.53

Binh Duong

1.08

Hai Phong creates 42% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 92 away

1.55

creates per match

1.01

1.16

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Hai Phong

1.55

Binh Duong

1.01

allows per match

Hai Phong

1.16

Binh Duong

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hai Phong+0.00on par

Binh Duong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hai Phong ↓

Binh Duong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hai Phong or draw

73%

Hai Phong or Binh Duong

74%

Draw or Binh Duong

52%

Winning margin

Hai Phong wins by 2+

24%

Binh Duong wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hai Phong 1+ goals

78%

Hai Phong 2+ goals

45%

Hai Phong 3+ goals

20%

Binh Duong 1+ goals

66%

Binh Duong 2+ goals

29%

Binh Duong 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hai Phong (draw refunded)

64%

Binh Duong (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hai Phong at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.16 · 88 matches

Binh Duong away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.51 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hai Phong attack 1.55 + Binh Duong defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.53

Binh Duong attack 1.01 + Hai Phong defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hai Phong scores more

48%

level

26%

Binh Duong scores more

27%

Hai Phong at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hai Phong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Luong Hoang Nam

19'

B. Bissainthe

26'

Nguyen Hai Huy← Nguyen Hai Huy

37'

Dang Van Toi

38'

Lucao

44'

Lucao

45+3'

46'

Ha Duc Chinh← Nguyen Tien Linh

46'

Tran Duy Khanh← Tran Duy Khanh

46'

Nguyen Huu Son← T. D. Nguyen

46'

Luong Hoang Nam← Ho Minh Di

46'

Dang Van Toi← N. Van Bac

65'

T. D. Nguyen

69'

Nguyen Tien Linh

71'

Que Ngoc Hai← Nguyen Hung Thien Duc

77'

Trieu Viet Hung← V. N. Nguyen

90+3'

Nguyen Tien Linh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff