Haguenau 2–2 Saint-Louis Neuweg: Result & Stats

Haguenau

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Saint-Louis Neuweg

2/14/2021

Coupe de France · 8th RoundParc Des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Haguenau36%

×Draw24%

Saint-Louis Neuweg40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaguenauExpected goals in this matchSaint-Louis Neuweg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.58

Haguenau

1.50

Saint-Louis Neuweg

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

1.50

1.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Haguenau

1.50

Saint-Louis Neuweg

1.50

allows per match

Haguenau

1.67

Saint-Louis Neuweg

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haguenau+0.00on par

Saint-Louis Neuweg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haguenau ↓

Saint-Louis Neuweg →

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Haguenau or draw

60%

Haguenau or Saint-Louis Neuweg

76%

Draw or Saint-Louis Neuweg

64%

Winning margin

Haguenau wins by 2+

17%

Saint-Louis Neuweg wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Haguenau 1+ goals

78%

Haguenau 2+ goals

44%

Haguenau 3+ goals

19%

Saint-Louis Neuweg 1+ goals

79%

Saint-Louis Neuweg 2+ goals

47%

Saint-Louis Neuweg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Haguenau (draw refunded)

48%

Saint-Louis Neuweg (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Haguenau at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Saint-Louis Neuweg away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Haguenau attack 1.50 + Saint-Louis Neuweg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Saint-Louis Neuweg attack 1.50 + Haguenau defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Haguenau scores more

36%

level

24%

Saint-Louis Neuweg scores more

40%

Saint-Louis Neuweg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Saint-Louis Neuweg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff