Haguenau 1–3 Dunkerque: Result & Stats

Haguenau

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Dunkerque

R. Metzger 38'

Y. Bammou 90+7'

N. Skyttä 83'

G. Courtet 75'

1/22/2025

Coupe de France · Round of 32Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Haguenau26%

×Draw23%

Dunkerque51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaguenauExpected goals in this matchDunkerque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.83

Haguenau

1.25

Dunkerque

1.83

Dunkerque creates 46% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

1.50

creates per match

2.00

1.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Haguenau

1.50

Dunkerque

2.00

allows per match

Haguenau

1.67

Dunkerque

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haguenau+0.00on par

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haguenau ↓

Dunkerque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Haguenau or draw

49%

Haguenau or Dunkerque

77%

Draw or Dunkerque

74%

Winning margin

Haguenau wins by 2+

11%

Dunkerque wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Haguenau 1+ goals

71%

Haguenau 2+ goals

36%

Haguenau 3+ goals

13%

Dunkerque 1+ goals

84%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

54%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Haguenau (draw refunded)

34%

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haguenau at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haguenau attack 1.50 + Dunkerque defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dunkerque attack 2.00 + Haguenau defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Haguenau scores more

26%

level

23%

Dunkerque scores more

51%

Dunkerque at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dunkerque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

G. Courtet

Dunkerque · F

8.5

Match Events

16'

Sidy Diagne

38'

R. Metzger

58'

M. Essimi← M. Rivera

58'

Opa Sanganté← V. Sasso

58'

A. Georgen← A. Linguet

61'

Hamza Salhi

62'

U. Raghouber← Diogo Queirós

66'

Y. Bammou← A. Sekongo

70'

Y. N'Diaye← N. Hintenoch

75'

G. Courtet↳ B. Youssouf

83'

N. Skyttä↳ G. Courtet

87'

M. Correa← A. Fofana

90+7'

Y. Bammou↳ M. Essimi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaguenauDunkerque

Overview

37%Possession63%

10Total Shots12

5Corners5

14Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots12

2On Target3

7Off Target4

1Blocked5

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

282Total Passes510

200Accurate Passes424

71%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards0

6Offsides4