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Hafnir vs Úlfarnir — Cup 2019

Hafnir
Hafnir
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Úlfarnir
Úlfarnir
4/12/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundNettóhöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hafnir84%
×Draw10%
Úlfarnir7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hafnir
4.00
Úlfarnir
1.17

Hafnir creates 242% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hafnir
5.00
Úlfarnir
2.00

allows per match

Hafnir
0.33
Úlfarnir
3.00

finishing

Hafnir+0.00on par
Úlfarnir+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hafnir ↓

Úlfarnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Hafnir or draw
93%
Hafnir or Úlfarnir
90%
Draw or Úlfarnir
16%

Winning margin

Hafnir wins by 2+
68%
Úlfarnir wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Hafnir 1+ goals
98%
Hafnir 2+ goals
90%
Hafnir 3+ goals
73%
Úlfarnir 1+ goals
69%
Úlfarnir 2+ goals
33%
Úlfarnir 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hafnir (draw refunded)
92%
Úlfarnir (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hafnir at home — creates 5.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Úlfarnir away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hafnir attack 5.00 + Úlfarnir defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 4.00

Úlfarnir attack 2.00 + Hafnir defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Hafnir scores more
84%
level
10%
Úlfarnir scores more
7%

Hafnir at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Hafnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hafnir vs Úlfarnir

Hafnir beat Úlfarnir 3-0 in Cup on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Nettóhöllin in Keflavík, Reykjanesbær.