Hafia 0–0 Génération Foot: Result & Stats

Hafia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Génération Foot

8/20/2023

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundStade Général Lansana Conté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hafia45%

×Draw40%

Génération Foot14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HafiaExpected goals in this matchGénération Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

0.34

Hafia

0.83

Génération Foot

0.34

Hafia creates 144% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.00

0.67

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Hafia

1.00

Génération Foot

0.00

allows per match

Hafia

0.67

Génération Foot

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hafia+0.00on par

Génération Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under89
Over11

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No84
Yes16

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hafia ↓

Génération Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–031%

0–111%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–026%

1–19%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (31%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

69%31%1.5

33%67%2.5

11%89%3.5

3%97%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Hafia or draw

86%

Hafia or Génération Foot

60%

Draw or Génération Foot

55%

Winning margin

Hafia wins by 2+

16%

Génération Foot wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Hafia 1+ goals

56%

Hafia 2+ goals

20%

Hafia 3+ goals

5%

Génération Foot 1+ goals

29%

Génération Foot 2+ goals

5%

Génération Foot 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Hafia (draw refunded)

76%

Génération Foot (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

7%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hafia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Génération Foot away — creates 0.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hafia attack 1.00 + Génération Foot defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Génération Foot attack 0.00 + Hafia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hafia scores more

45%

level

40%

Génération Foot scores more

14%

Hafia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hafia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

S. Andoulo← C. Camara

52'

Alhassane Camara← L. Sanoh

52'

G. Siby← A. Bangoura

58'

A. Touré← C. Simon

68'

Mouhamed Dieng← Aly Sy

82'

U. Boissy← S. Faye

Hafia

Génération

16

21

3

4

35

26

23

▼

Simon

6

▼

Sy

11

▼

10

18

16

3

▼

Camara

13

I

17

Camara

27

▼

Sanoh

2

Bangoura

4

Damaro

6

▼

26

21

9

Manager: K. Bangoura

34'▲S. Andoulo←▼C. Camara

52'▲Alhassane Camara←▼L. Sanoh

52'▲G. Siby←▼A. Bangoura

Hafia substitutes

11Andoulo29Camara10Siby19Donzo22Keita24Landel25Camara28Ablor31Bangoura

Manager: B. Diaby

58'▲A. Touré←▼C. Simon

68'▲Mouhamed Dieng←▼Aly Sy

82'▲U. Boissy←▼S. Faye

Génération Foot substitutes

17Touré28Dieng2Boissy19Camara13Djite5Thiam33Sarry