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Hadiya Hosaena vs Sidama Bunna — Premier League 2019

Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
4/14/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Hadiya Hosaena34%
×Draw29%
Sidama Bunna37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hadiya Hosaena
1.07
Sidama Bunna
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 102 away

creates per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.03
Sidama Bunna
1.19

allows per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.09
Sidama Bunna
1.11

finishing

Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par
Sidama Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hadiya Hosaena ↓

Sidama Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hadiya Hosaena or draw
63%
Hadiya Hosaena or Sidama Bunna
71%
Draw or Sidama Bunna
66%

Winning margin

Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
13%
Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
66%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
29%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
9%
Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
68%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
32%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
48%
Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hadiya Hosaena at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 101 matches

Sidama Bunna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.11 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hadiya Hosaena attack 1.03 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sidama Bunna attack 1.19 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hadiya Hosaena scores more
34%
level
29%
Sidama Bunna scores more
37%

Sidama Bunna at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sidama Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Hadiya Hosaena 1–2 Sidama Bunna

Sidama Bunna beat Hadiya Hosaena 2-1 in Premier League on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.