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Hadiya Hosaena vs Shashemene Kenema — Premier League 2019

Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shashemene Kenema
Shashemene Kenema
10/31/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hadiya Hosaena40%
×Draw30%
Shashemene Kenema31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hadiya Hosaena
1.15
Shashemene Kenema
0.98

Hadiya Hosaena creates 17% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.03
Shashemene Kenema
0.87

allows per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.09
Shashemene Kenema
1.27

finishing

Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par
Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hadiya Hosaena ↓

Shashemene Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hadiya Hosaena or draw
69%
Hadiya Hosaena or Shashemene Kenema
70%
Draw or Shashemene Kenema
60%

Winning margin

Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
17%
Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
68%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
32%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
11%
Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals
62%
Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals
26%
Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
56%
Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hadiya Hosaena at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 101 matches

Shashemene Kenema away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hadiya Hosaena attack 1.03 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.87 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hadiya Hosaena scores more
40%
level
30%
Shashemene Kenema scores more
31%

Hadiya Hosaena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hadiya Hosaena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Hadiya Hosaena 0–0 Shashemene Kenema

Hadiya Hosaena and Shashemene Kenema drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 31, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.