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Hadiya Hosaena vs Mekelakeya — Premier League 2019

Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mekelakeya
Mekelakeya
6/5/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Hadiya Hosaena29%
×Draw29%
Mekelakeya42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hadiya Hosaena
0.95
Mekelakeya
1.22

Mekelakeya creates 28% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 81 away

creates per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.03
Mekelakeya
1.35

allows per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.09
Mekelakeya
0.86

finishing

Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par
Mekelakeya+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hadiya Hosaena ↓

Mekelakeya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hadiya Hosaena or draw
58%
Hadiya Hosaena or Mekelakeya
71%
Draw or Mekelakeya
71%

Winning margin

Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
10%
Mekelakeya wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
61%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
25%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
7%
Mekelakeya 1+ goals
70%
Mekelakeya 2+ goals
34%
Mekelakeya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
40%
Mekelakeya (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hadiya Hosaena at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 101 matches

Mekelakeya away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hadiya Hosaena attack 1.03 + Mekelakeya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Mekelakeya attack 1.35 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hadiya Hosaena scores more
29%
level
29%
Mekelakeya scores more
42%

Mekelakeya at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mekelakeya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Hadiya Hosaena 1–1 Mekelakeya

Hadiya Hosaena and Mekelakeya drew 1-1 in Premier League on June 5, 2025.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.