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Hadiya Hosaena vs Fasil Ketema — Premier League 2019

Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fasil Ketema
Fasil Ketema
1/11/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Hadiya Hosaena32%
×Draw30%
Fasil Ketema38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hadiya Hosaena
0.96
Fasil Ketema
1.08

Fasil Ketema creates 13% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 102 away

creates per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.03
Fasil Ketema
1.08

allows per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.09
Fasil Ketema
0.89

finishing

Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par
Fasil Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hadiya Hosaena ↓

Fasil Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hadiya Hosaena or draw
62%
Hadiya Hosaena or Fasil Ketema
70%
Draw or Fasil Ketema
68%

Winning margin

Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
12%
Fasil Ketema wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
62%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
25%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
7%
Fasil Ketema 1+ goals
66%
Fasil Ketema 2+ goals
29%
Fasil Ketema 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
46%
Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hadiya Hosaena at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 101 matches

Fasil Ketema away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hadiya Hosaena attack 1.03 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Fasil Ketema attack 1.08 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hadiya Hosaena scores more
32%
level
30%
Fasil Ketema scores more
38%

Fasil Ketema at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fasil Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Hadiya Hosaena 1–1 Fasil Ketema

Hadiya Hosaena and Fasil Ketema drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.