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Hadiya Hosaena vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank — Premier League 2019

Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Hadiya Hosaena32%
×Draw29%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hadiya Hosaena
1.02
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.16

Ethiopia Nigd Bank creates 14% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 52 away

creates per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.03
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.23

allows per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.09
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.02

finishing

Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par
Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hadiya Hosaena ↓

Ethiopia Nigd Bank →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hadiya Hosaena or draw
61%
Hadiya Hosaena or Ethiopia Nigd Bank
71%
Draw or Ethiopia Nigd Bank
68%

Winning margin

Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
12%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
64%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
27%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
8%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals
69%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals
32%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
45%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hadiya Hosaena at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 101 matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hadiya Hosaena attack 1.03 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.23 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hadiya Hosaena scores more
32%
level
29%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more
39%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ethiopia Nigd Bank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hadiya Hosaena 1 – 0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Hadiya Hosaena beat Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1-0 in Premier League on January 20, 2025.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.