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Hadiya Hosaena vs Ethiopia Bunna — Premier League 2019

Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
11/25/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Hadiya Hosaena33%
×Draw30%
Ethiopia Bunna37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hadiya Hosaena
1.03
Ethiopia Bunna
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 102 away

creates per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.03
Ethiopia Bunna
1.11

allows per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.09
Ethiopia Bunna
1.03

finishing

Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par
Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hadiya Hosaena ↓

Ethiopia Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hadiya Hosaena or draw
63%
Hadiya Hosaena or Ethiopia Bunna
70%
Draw or Ethiopia Bunna
67%

Winning margin

Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
13%
Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
64%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
28%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
9%
Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
67%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
30%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
47%
Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hadiya Hosaena at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 101 matches

Ethiopia Bunna away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hadiya Hosaena attack 1.03 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.11 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hadiya Hosaena scores more
33%
level
30%
Ethiopia Bunna scores more
37%

Ethiopia Bunna at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Hadiya Hosaena 1–0 Ethiopia Bunna

Hadiya Hosaena beat Ethiopia Bunna 1-0 in Premier League on November 25, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.