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Hadiya Hosaena vs Awassa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
5/9/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Hadiya Hosaena36%
×Draw29%
Awassa Kenema35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hadiya Hosaena
1.13
Awassa Kenema
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 100 away

creates per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.03
Awassa Kenema
1.14

allows per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.09
Awassa Kenema
1.22

finishing

Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par
Awassa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hadiya Hosaena ↓

Awassa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hadiya Hosaena or draw
65%
Hadiya Hosaena or Awassa Kenema
71%
Draw or Awassa Kenema
64%

Winning margin

Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
15%
Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
68%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
31%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
11%
Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
67%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
30%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
51%
Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hadiya Hosaena at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 101 matches

Awassa Kenema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.22 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hadiya Hosaena attack 1.03 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Awassa Kenema attack 1.14 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Hadiya Hosaena scores more
36%
level
29%
Awassa Kenema scores more
35%

Hadiya Hosaena at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Hadiya Hosaena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hadiya Hosaena vs Awassa Kenema

Hadiya Hosaena beat Awassa Kenema 1-0 in Premier League on May 9, 2026.