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Haddington Athletic vs Darvel — FA Cup 2019

Haddington Athletic
Haddington Athletic
FT
1 – 3
Darvel
Darvel
8/27/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundMillfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Haddington Athletic13%
×Draw16%
Darvel71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haddington Athletic
1.14
Darvel
2.77

Darvel creates 143% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Haddington Athletic
1.00
Darvel
2.55

allows per match

Haddington Athletic
3.00
Darvel
1.27

finishing

Haddington Athletic+0.00on par
Darvel+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haddington Athletic ↓

Darvel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Haddington Athletic or draw
29%
Haddington Athletic or Darvel
84%
Draw or Darvel
87%

Winning margin

Haddington Athletic wins by 2+
5%
Darvel wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Haddington Athletic 1+ goals
68%
Haddington Athletic 2+ goals
32%
Haddington Athletic 3+ goals
11%
Darvel 1+ goals
94%
Darvel 2+ goals
76%
Darvel 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Haddington Athletic (draw refunded)
16%
Darvel (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haddington Athletic at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Darvel away — creates 2.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haddington Athletic attack 1.00 + Darvel defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Darvel attack 2.55 + Haddington Athletic defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Haddington Athletic scores more
13%
level
16%
Darvel scores more
71%

Darvel at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Darvel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Haddington Athletic 1–3 Darvel

Darvel beat Haddington Athletic 3-1 in FA Cup on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Millfield Park in Haddington.