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Haddington Athletic vs Auchinleck Talbot — FA Cup 2019

Haddington Athletic
Haddington Athletic
FT
1 – 4
Auchinleck Talbot
Auchinleck Talbot
8/31/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundMillfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Haddington Athletic11%
×Draw14%
Auchinleck Talbot75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haddington Athletic
1.04
Auchinleck Talbot
2.96

Auchinleck Talbot creates 185% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Haddington Athletic
1.00
Auchinleck Talbot
2.92

allows per match

Haddington Athletic
3.00
Auchinleck Talbot
1.08

finishing

Haddington Athletic+0.00on par
Auchinleck Talbot+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haddington Athletic ↓

Auchinleck Talbot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–39%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Haddington Athletic or draw
25%
Haddington Athletic or Auchinleck Talbot
86%
Draw or Auchinleck Talbot
89%

Winning margin

Haddington Athletic wins by 2+
3%
Auchinleck Talbot wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Haddington Athletic 1+ goals
65%
Haddington Athletic 2+ goals
28%
Haddington Athletic 3+ goals
9%
Auchinleck Talbot 1+ goals
95%
Auchinleck Talbot 2+ goals
79%
Auchinleck Talbot 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Haddington Athletic (draw refunded)
12%
Auchinleck Talbot (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haddington Athletic at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Auchinleck Talbot away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haddington Athletic attack 1.00 + Auchinleck Talbot defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Auchinleck Talbot attack 2.92 + Haddington Athletic defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Haddington Athletic scores more
11%
level
14%
Auchinleck Talbot scores more
75%

Auchinleck Talbot at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Auchinleck Talbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haddington Athletic vs Auchinleck Talbot

Auchinleck Talbot beat Haddington Athletic 4-1 in FA Cup on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Millfield Park in Haddington.