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Hadamar vs Hessen Dreieich — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Hadamar
Hadamar
CANC
13:30
Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
2/20/2021Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 20Sportanlage Faulbacher Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hadamar33%
×Draw22%
Hessen Dreieich45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hadamar
1.69
Hessen Dreieich
1.98

Hessen Dreieich creates 17% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 21 away

creates per match

Hadamar
1.85
Hessen Dreieich
2.14

allows per match

Hadamar
1.82
Hessen Dreieich
1.52

finishing

Hadamar+0.00on par
Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hadamar ↓

Hessen Dreieich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hadamar or draw
55%
Hadamar or Hessen Dreieich
78%
Draw or Hessen Dreieich
67%

Winning margin

Hadamar wins by 2+
17%
Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Hadamar 1+ goals
82%
Hadamar 2+ goals
50%
Hadamar 3+ goals
24%
Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
86%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
59%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Hadamar (draw refunded)
43%
Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hadamar at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.82 · 40 matches

Hessen Dreieich away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hadamar attack 1.85 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.14 + Hadamar defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hadamar scores more
33%
level
22%
Hessen Dreieich scores more
45%

Hessen Dreieich at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hadamar face Hessen Dreieich (Oberliga - Hessen)

Oberliga - Hessen returns with Hadamar hosting Hessen Dreieich. Match starts February 20, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hadamar host Hessen Dreieich at Sportanlage Faulbacher Straße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.