Häcken W 5–1 Vittsjö W: Result & Stats

Häcken W

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Vittsjö W

S. Sandbech 90'

F. Schroder 77', 24', 11', 9'

H. Ekengren 17'

4/13/2025

Damallsvenskan · Round 3Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Häcken W65%

×Draw19%

Vittsjö W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Häcken WExpected goals in this matchVittsjö W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.97

Häcken W

2.21

Vittsjö W

0.97

Häcken W creates 128% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 80 away

2.91

creates per match

1.26

0.68

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Häcken W

2.91

Vittsjö W

1.26

allows per match

Häcken W

0.68

Vittsjö W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Häcken W+0.00on par

Vittsjö W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Vittsjö W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw

85%

Häcken W or Vittsjö W

81%

Draw or Vittsjö W

35%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+

42%

Vittsjö W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals

89%

Häcken W 2+ goals

65%

Häcken W 3+ goals

38%

Vittsjö W 1+ goals

62%

Vittsjö W 2+ goals

25%

Vittsjö W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)

81%

Vittsjö W (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

Vittsjö W away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.50 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 2.91 + Vittsjö W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.21

Vittsjö W attack 1.26 + Häcken W defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Häcken W scores more

65%

level

19%

Vittsjö W scores more

15%

Häcken W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

F. Schroder↳ T. Tindell

11'

F. Schroder

17'

H. Ekengren

24'

F. Schroder↳ T. Tindell

56'

A. Altheden← E. Klinga

57'

C. Wickenheiser← E. Rubensson

57'

S. Sandbech← T. Tindell

62'

J. Nyby

65'

L. Sallstrom← H. Kollanen

76'

P. Nystrom← M. Jusu Bah

77'

F. Schroder↳ A. Bergstrom

80'

S. Rewucha

82'

A. Benediktsson← J. Tunturi

82'

M. Larsson← H. Ekengren

82'

S. Lynn← S. Ojanen

87'

F. Schroder

88'

H. Wijk

88'

A. Larsson← J. Sorensen

89'

H. Sampaio← M. Nilden

90'

S. Sandbech

Häcken

Vittsjö

13

Vaughan

9

▼

Klinga

3

▼

Tunturi

2

▼

16

5

10

4

19

▼

Kollanen

11

⚽

▼

8

13

4

6

23

▼

Rubensson

20

Wijk

21

▼

Sorensen

24

A

▼

Tindell

25

A

Bergstrom

11

▼

Bah

14

▼

Nilden

9

⚽4

Schroder

Manager: Mak Adam Lind

57'▲C. Wickenheiser←▼E. Rubensson

57'▲S. Sandbech←▼T. Tindell

76'▲P. Nystrom←▼M. Jusu Bah

88'▲A. Larsson←▼J. Sorensen

89'▲H. Sampaio←▼M. Nilden

Häcken W substitutes

1Birkisdottir5Wickenheiser12Sandbech18Lowing19Akgun22Nystrom26Larsson30Sampaio

Manager: Mladen Blagojevic

56'▲A. Altheden←▼E. Klinga

65'▲L. Sallstrom←▼H. Kollanen

82'▲A. Benediktsson←▼J. Tunturi

82'▲M. Larsson←▼H. Ekengren

82'▲S. Lynn←▼S. Ojanen

Vittsjö W substitutes

1Madden6Altheden7Walta14Hallengren17Benediktsson18Sallstrom21Larsson22Lynn