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Häcken W vs Trelleborg W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Häcken W
Häcken W
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Trelleborg W
Trelleborg W
F. Schröder 88' (pen), 39'
R. Grant 82'
M. Nildén 72'
F. Curmark 57'
R. Kafaji 17'
J. Fossdalsá 5'
7/5/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 15Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Häcken W89%
×Draw8%
Trelleborg W3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Häcken W
3.34
Trelleborg W
0.53

Häcken W creates 530% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 13 away

creates per match

Häcken W
2.91
Trelleborg W
0.38

allows per match

Häcken W
0.68
Trelleborg W
3.77

finishing

Häcken W+0.00on par
Trelleborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Trelleborg W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw
97%
Häcken W or Trelleborg W
92%
Draw or Trelleborg W
11%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+
72%
Trelleborg W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals
96%
Häcken W 2+ goals
84%
Häcken W 3+ goals
63%
Trelleborg W 1+ goals
41%
Trelleborg W 2+ goals
10%
Trelleborg W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)
97%
Trelleborg W (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

Trelleborg W away — creates 0.38, concedes 3.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 2.91 + Trelleborg W defence 3.77 → ÷2 → 3.34

Trelleborg W attack 0.38 + Häcken W defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Häcken W scores more
89%
level
8%
Trelleborg W scores more
3%

Häcken W at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
J. Fossdalsá
17'
R. Kafaji
39'
F. Schröder
46'
R. Grant← J. Fossdalsá
46'
M. Jusu Bah← A. Bergström
57'
F. Curmark
62'
A. Sandberg← A. Luik
62'
A. Csiki← R. Kafaji
65'
I. Garmfors← A. Egnér
65'
R. Strand← S. Rewucha
66'
M. Karlsson← L. Sternfeldt
66'
L. Prambrant← I. Jonsson
72'
M. Nildén
76'
A. Larsson← E. Junttila-Nelhage
82'
A. Olsson← E. Lenir
82'
R. Grant
88'
F. SchröderPenalty

Possession

61%Häcken

Shots

38Häcken

Pass accuracy

53%Häcken

Statistics

HäckenTrelleborg
Overview
61%Possession39%
38Total Shots2
6.27Expected Goals (xG)0.09
9Corners1
5Fouls5
Shots
38Total Shots2
16On Target1
15Off Target1
4Blocked0
23Inside Box1
15Outside Box1
Passing
61%Possession39%
583Total Passes313
514Accurate Passes245
88%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves9
Discipline
5Fouls5
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Häcken W vs Trelleborg W

Häcken W beat Trelleborg W 7-0 in Damallsvenskan on July 5, 2024.

Goals: J. Fossdalsá (5'), R. Kafaji (17'), F. Schröder (39', 88' pen), F. Curmark (57'), M. Nildén (72'), R. Grant (82').

Häcken W controlled possession (61%) and registered 38 shots to 2.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.