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Häcken W vs Malmö FF W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Häcken W
Häcken W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Malmö FF W
Malmö FF W
T. Tindell 81'
F. Schroder 36' (pen)
S. Fornes 82'
I. D'Aquila 15', 5'
3/23/2025DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 1Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Häcken W49%
×Draw22%
Malmö FF W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Häcken W
2.01
Malmö FF W
1.50

Häcken W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Häcken W
2.91
Malmö FF W
2.32

allows per match

Häcken W
0.68
Malmö FF W
1.11

finishing

Häcken W+0.00on par
Malmö FF W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Malmö FF W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw
71%
Häcken W or Malmö FF W
78%
Draw or Malmö FF W
51%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+
28%
Malmö FF W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals
87%
Häcken W 2+ goals
59%
Häcken W 3+ goals
32%
Malmö FF W 1+ goals
78%
Malmö FF W 2+ goals
44%
Malmö FF W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)
63%
Malmö FF W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

Malmö FF W away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 2.91 + Malmö FF W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 2.01

Malmö FF W attack 2.32 + Häcken W defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Häcken W scores more
49%
level
22%
Malmö FF W scores more
29%

Häcken W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. D'AquilaMalmö FF WMalmö FF W · F
8.9

Match Events

5'
I. D'Aquila↳ K. Kosola
15'
I. D'Aquila
36'
Matilda Nildén
36'
F. SchroderPenalty
37'
Nathalie Hoff Persson
42'
Moa Öhman
53'
A. Bergstrom← C. Wickenheiser
69'
P. Nystrom← M. Nilden
69'
B. Persson← T. Skoog
81'
T. Tindell
82'
S. Fornes
84'
S. Sandbech← M. Jusu Bah
84'
H. Sampaio← E. Ostlund

Possession

56%Häcken

Shots

19Häcken

Pass accuracy

52%Häcken

Statistics

HäckenMalmö
Overview
56%Possession44%
19Total Shots7
2.45Expected Goals (xG)2.02
10Corners1
13Fouls6
Shots
19Total Shots7
6On Target4
6Off Target2
7Blocked0
11Inside Box5
8Outside Box2
Passing
56%Possession44%
546Total Passes386
447Accurate Passes293
82%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls6
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Häcken W vs Malmö FF W

Malmö FF W beat Häcken W 3-2 in Damallsvenskan on March 23, 2025.

Goals: I. D'Aquila (5', 15'), F. Schroder (36' pen), T. Tindell (81'), S. Fornes (82').

Häcken W controlled possession (56%) and registered 19 shots to 7.

The match was played at Bravida Arena.