Häcken W vs Kristianstad W: Preview & Prediction

Häcken W

Preview

17:00

Kristianstad W

11/2/2026

Damallsvenskan · Round 24Nordic Wellness Arena

Big match

58%

Häcken W

model favours

58%21%21%

Häcken W have won 3 in a row

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

65%

over 2.5 goals

62%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Häcken W58%

×Draw21%

Kristianstad W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Häcken WExpected goals in this matchKristianstad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.23

Häcken W

2.15

Kristianstad W

1.23

Häcken W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 79 away

2.91

creates per match

1.78

0.68

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Häcken W

2.91

Kristianstad W

1.78

allows per match

Häcken W

0.68

Kristianstad W

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Häcken W+0.00on par

Kristianstad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Kristianstad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw

79%

Häcken W or Kristianstad W

79%

Draw or Kristianstad W

42%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+

36%

Kristianstad W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals

88%

Häcken W 2+ goals

63%

Häcken W 3+ goals

36%

Kristianstad W 1+ goals

71%

Kristianstad W 2+ goals

35%

Kristianstad W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)

73%

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

Kristianstad W away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.39 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 2.91 + Kristianstad W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 2.15

Kristianstad W attack 1.78 + Häcken W defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Häcken W scores more

58%

level

21%

Kristianstad W scores more

21%

Häcken W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Häcken W score first in only 25% of matches
Both teams score in only 33% of Häcken W’s matches
Häcken W win just 59% against the top half (vs 92% against the bottom)
Kristianstad W win just 35% against the top half (vs 68% against the bottom)
Häcken W fall short of their xG (1.7 vs 2.1 expected)