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Häcken W vs KIF Örebro W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Häcken W
Häcken W
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
KIF Örebro W
KIF Örebro W
8/19/2022DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 17Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Häcken W73%
×Draw17%
KIF Örebro W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Häcken W
2.40
KIF Örebro W
0.79

Häcken W creates 204% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 62 away

creates per match

Häcken W
2.91
KIF Örebro W
0.90

allows per match

Häcken W
0.68
KIF Örebro W
1.89

finishing

Häcken W+0.00on par
KIF Örebro W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

KIF Örebro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw
89%
Häcken W or KIF Örebro W
83%
Draw or KIF Örebro W
27%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+
50%
KIF Örebro W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals
91%
Häcken W 2+ goals
69%
Häcken W 3+ goals
42%
KIF Örebro W 1+ goals
55%
KIF Örebro W 2+ goals
19%
KIF Örebro W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)
87%
KIF Örebro W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

KIF Örebro W away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.89 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 2.91 + KIF Örebro W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.40

KIF Örebro W attack 0.90 + Häcken W defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Häcken W scores more
73%
level
17%
KIF Örebro W scores more
11%

Häcken W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Damallsvenskan: Häcken W 6–0 KIF Örebro W

Häcken W beat KIF Örebro W 6-0 in Damallsvenskan on August 19, 2022.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.