Häcken W vs Eskilstuna United W

Häcken W

Preview

13:00

Eskilstuna United W

8/2/2026

Damallsvenskan · Round 12Nordic Wellness Arena

66%

Häcken W

model favours

66%20%15%

Häcken W have won 3 in a row

brightest fact of this match

2–0

likely score

57%

over 2.5 goals

51%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Häcken W66%

×Draw20%

Eskilstuna United W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Häcken WExpected goals in this matchEskilstuna United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.88

Häcken W

2.12

Eskilstuna United W

0.88

Häcken W creates 141% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 40 away

2.91

creates per match

1.07

0.68

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Häcken W

2.91

Eskilstuna United W

1.07

allows per match

Häcken W

0.68

Eskilstuna United W

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Häcken W+0.00on par

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Eskilstuna United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw

85%

Häcken W or Eskilstuna United W

80%

Draw or Eskilstuna United W

34%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+

42%

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals

88%

Häcken W 2+ goals

62%

Häcken W 3+ goals

35%

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

59%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

22%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)

82%

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

Eskilstuna United W away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 2.91 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.12

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.07 + Häcken W defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Häcken W scores more

66%

level

20%

Eskilstuna United W scores more

15%

Häcken W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Häcken W score first in only 25% of matches
Both teams score in only 33% of Häcken W’s matches
Häcken W win just 59% against the top half (vs 92% against the bottom)
Eskilstuna United W win just 18% against the top half (vs 62% against the bottom)
Häcken W fall short of their xG (2.4 vs 2.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

WWWWL

W

LWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff