Eskilstuna United W 1–2 Häcken W: Result & Stats

Eskilstuna United W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Häcken W

P. Nyström 63'

M. Bergman-Lundin 70'

S. Larsen 34'

9/17/2022

Damallsvenskan · Round 20Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Eskilstuna United W22%

×Draw24%

Häcken W53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eskilstuna United WExpected goals in this matchHäcken W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.70

Eskilstuna United W

1.01

Häcken W

1.70

Häcken W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 58 away

1.39

creates per match

2.28

1.12

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

Eskilstuna United W

1.39

Häcken W

2.28

allows per match

Eskilstuna United W

1.12

Häcken W

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Häcken W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilstuna United W ↓

Häcken W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Eskilstuna United W or draw

47%

Eskilstuna United W or Häcken W

76%

Draw or Häcken W

78%

Winning margin

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

8%

Häcken W wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

64%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

27%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

8%

Häcken W 1+ goals

82%

Häcken W 2+ goals

51%

Häcken W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

30%

Häcken W (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilstuna United W at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

Häcken W away — creates 2.28, concedes 0.64 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.39 + Häcken W defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.01

Häcken W attack 2.28 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Eskilstuna United W scores more

22%

level

24%

Häcken W scores more

53%

Häcken W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

S. Larsen

43'

L. Vickius

46'

E. Tillenius← L. Vickius

63'

M. Bergman-Lundin← A. Csiki

63'

P. Nyström

64'

M. Johansson← M. Gejl Jensen

67'

70'

77'

81'

Eskilstuna

Häcken

13

3

6

16

10

9

17

▼

Csiki

20

Wijk

11

Hammarlun

12

⚽

▼

Larsen

29

▼

13

20

21

4

22

▼

Duras

14

Eckhoff

8

▼

6

9

16

10

⚽

Nyström

Manager: F. Bernhardsson

46'▲E. Tillenius←▼L. Vickius

77'▲M. Alvin←▼L. Duras

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

24Tillenius17Alvin1Kostić25Okobi-Okeoghene26Vigholm18Wallmark23Jävergren

Manager: R. Vilahamn

63'▲M. Bergman-Lundin←▼A. Csiki

64'▲M. Johansson←▼M. Gejl Jensen

81'▲D. Zeller←▼S. Larsen

Häcken W substitutes

22Bergman-Lundin14Johansson7Zeller8Kafaji19Junttila-Nelhage23Hegerberg52Peng25Madril

Match Recap: Eskilstuna United W vs Häcken W

Häcken W beat Eskilstuna United W 2-1 in Damallsvenskan on September 17, 2022.

Goals: S. Larsen (34'), P. Nyström (63'), M. Bergman-Lundin (70').

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.

Eskilstuna United W vs Häcken W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Eskilstuna United W vs Häcken W