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Häcken W vs Brommapojkarna W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Häcken W
Häcken W
FT
6 – 1
HT: 5 – 0
Brommapojkarna W
Brommapojkarna W
5/11/2025DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 7Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Häcken W66%
×Draw17%
Brommapojkarna W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Häcken W
2.74
Brommapojkarna W
1.37

Häcken W creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Häcken W
3.33
Brommapojkarna W
1.25

allows per match

Häcken W
1.49
Brommapojkarna W
2.15

finishing

Häcken W+0.27scores more
Brommapojkarna W-0.39scores less

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Brommapojkarna W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw
83%
Häcken W or Brommapojkarna W
83%
Draw or Brommapojkarna W
34%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+
45%
Brommapojkarna W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals
93%
Häcken W 2+ goals
75%
Häcken W 3+ goals
51%
Brommapojkarna W 1+ goals
75%
Brommapojkarna W 2+ goals
40%
Brommapojkarna W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)
79%
Brommapojkarna W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.49 · 5 matches

Brommapojkarna W away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 3.33 + Brommapojkarna W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.74

Brommapojkarna W attack 1.25 + Häcken W defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Häcken W scores more
66%
level
17%
Brommapojkarna W scores more
17%

Häcken W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Häcken W vs Brommapojkarna W

Häcken W beat Brommapojkarna W 6-1 in Damallsvenskan on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Bravida Arena.