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Häcken W vs Atletico Madrid W — UEFA Champions League Women 2021

Häcken W
Häcken W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Madrid W
Atletico Madrid W
F. Schroder 86'
Luany 17'
9/11/2025UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 3rd Qualifying RoundNordic Wellness Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Häcken W23%
×Draw21%
Atletico Madrid W56%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Häcken W
1.24
Atletico Madrid W
2.06

Atletico Madrid W creates 66% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Häcken W
1.08
Atletico Madrid W
2.20

allows per match

Häcken W
1.92
Atletico Madrid W
1.40

finishing

Häcken W+0.00on par
Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Atletico Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw
44%
Häcken W or Atletico Madrid W
79%
Draw or Atletico Madrid W
77%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+
9%
Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals
71%
Häcken W 2+ goals
35%
Häcken W 3+ goals
13%
Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals
87%
Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals
61%
Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)
29%
Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Atletico Madrid W away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 1.08 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Atletico Madrid W attack 2.20 + Häcken W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Häcken W scores more
23%
level
21%
Atletico Madrid W scores more
56%

Atletico Madrid W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
Luany
61'
M. Portales Nieto← S. Jensen
72'
J. Bartel← V. Boe Risa
75'
M. Nilden← L. Lowing
75'
P. Nystrom← M. Jusu Bah
81'
E. Ostlund← H. Wijk
86'
F. Schroder↳ J. Sorensen
88'
Stine Larsen
89'
H. Sampaio← J. Sorensen
90'
Ana Vitoria← F. Iannuzzi
90'
A. Sarriegi← Luany

Statistics

HäckenAtletico
Discipline
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Häcken W vs Atletico Madrid W

Häcken W and Atletico Madrid W drew 1-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 11, 2025.

Goals: Luany (17'), F. Schroder (86').

The match was played at Nordic Wellness Arena.