Häcken II W 1–4 Eskilstuna United W: Result & Stats

Häcken II W

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Eskilstuna United W

L. Sternvik 58'

I. Sarjanoja 76', 74'

V. Ollonqvist 60'

W. Ohman 6'

6/7/2025

Elitettan · Round 8Gothia Park Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Häcken II W25%

×Draw21%

Eskilstuna United W55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Häcken II WExpected goals in this matchEskilstuna United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.20

Häcken II W

1.42

Eskilstuna United W

2.20

Eskilstuna United W creates 55% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 39 away

1.06

creates per match

1.82

2.58

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Häcken II W

1.06

Eskilstuna United W

1.82

allows per match

Häcken II W

2.58

Eskilstuna United W

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Häcken II W+0.00on par

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken II W ↓

Eskilstuna United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Häcken II W or draw

45%

Häcken II W or Eskilstuna United W

79%

Draw or Eskilstuna United W

75%

Winning margin

Häcken II W wins by 2+

11%

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Häcken II W 1+ goals

76%

Häcken II W 2+ goals

41%

Häcken II W 3+ goals

17%

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

89%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

64%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Häcken II W (draw refunded)

31%

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken II W at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.58 · 31 matches

Eskilstuna United W away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken II W attack 1.06 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.42

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.82 + Häcken II W defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Häcken II W scores more

25%

level

21%

Eskilstuna United W scores more

55%

Eskilstuna United W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

42'

58'

60'

70'

I. Sarjanoja← F. Rogic

74'

I. Sarjanoja

76'

I. Sarjanoja

80'

F. Mellingsater← E. Migas

80'

W. Lundstrom← M. Karisik

80'

N. Kjellman← T. Lindskog

83'

E. Bulow← A. Sutter

89'

E. Tillenius← S. Ikonen

89'

T. Youhana← G. Rennie

89'

M. Selling← V. Ollonqvist

Häcken

Eskilstuna

35

Wilhelm

2

▼

Ikonen

4

Niklasson

7

▼

Rennie

8

⚽

Ohman

9

▼

Rogic

11

⚽

▼

14

16

17

19

▼

1

5

8

9

▼

Karisik

10

▼

Migas

17

Jensen

19

⚽

Sternvik

21

▼

22

23

24

Manager: M. Olausson

80'▲F. Mellingsater←▼E. Migas

80'▲W. Lundstrom←▼M. Karisik

80'▲N. Kjellman←▼T. Lindskog

Häcken II W substitutes

6Mellingsater15Svanberg16Lundstrom25Kjellman26Nystrom

Manager: R. Johansson

70'▲I. Sarjanoja←▼F. Rogic

83'▲E. Bulow←▼A. Sutter

89'▲E. Tillenius←▼S. Ikonen

89'▲T. Youhana←▼G. Rennie

89'▲M. Selling←▼V. Ollonqvist

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

1Lundmark10Sarjanoja13Tillenius15Bulow21Stromberg22Youhana24Selling

Elitettan: Häcken II W 1–4 Eskilstuna United W

Eskilstuna United W beat Häcken II W 4-1 in Elitettan on June 7, 2025.

Goals: W. Ohman (6'), L. Sternvik (58'), V. Ollonqvist (60'), I. Sarjanoja (74', 76').

The match was played at Gothia Park Academy in Göteborg.

Häcken II W vs Eskilstuna United W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Elitettan: Häcken II W 1–4 Eskilstuna United W