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Häcken II W vs Bollstanäs W — Elitettan 2021

Häcken II W
Häcken II W
FT
3 – 7
HT: 2 – 3
Bollstanäs W
Bollstanäs W
4/1/2023ElitettanElitettan · Round 1Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Häcken II W34%
×Draw22%
Bollstanäs W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Häcken II W
1.64
Bollstanäs W
1.90

Bollstanäs W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 52 away

creates per match

Häcken II W
1.06
Bollstanäs W
1.21

allows per match

Häcken II W
2.58
Bollstanäs W
2.21

finishing

Häcken II W+0.00on par
Bollstanäs W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken II W ↓

Bollstanäs W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Häcken II W or draw
56%
Häcken II W or Bollstanäs W
78%
Draw or Bollstanäs W
66%

Winning margin

Häcken II W wins by 2+
16%
Bollstanäs W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Häcken II W 1+ goals
81%
Häcken II W 2+ goals
49%
Häcken II W 3+ goals
23%
Bollstanäs W 1+ goals
85%
Bollstanäs W 2+ goals
56%
Bollstanäs W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Häcken II W (draw refunded)
43%
Bollstanäs W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken II W at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.58 · 31 matches

Bollstanäs W away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.21 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken II W attack 1.06 + Bollstanäs W defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.64

Bollstanäs W attack 1.21 + Häcken II W defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Häcken II W scores more
34%
level
22%
Bollstanäs W scores more
44%

Bollstanäs W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bollstanäs W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elitettan: Häcken II W 3–7 Bollstanäs W

Bollstanäs W beat Häcken II W 7-3 in Elitettan on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.