Ha Noi 0–1 Yangon United: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Ha Noi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Yangon United

4/2/2019

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy (Hang Day Stadium) (Hà Nội (Hanoi))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ha Noi62%

×Draw18%

Yangon United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ha NoiExpected goals in this matchYangon United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.49

Ha Noi

2.67

Yangon United

1.49

Ha Noi creates 79% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

3.00

creates per match

2.22

0.75

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Ha Noi

3.00

Yangon United

2.22

allows per match

Ha Noi

0.75

Yangon United

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ha Noi+0.00on par

Yangon United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ha Noi ↓

Yangon United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Ha Noi or draw

80%

Ha Noi or Yangon United

82%

Draw or Yangon United

38%

Winning margin

Ha Noi wins by 2+

41%

Yangon United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ha Noi 1+ goals

93%

Ha Noi 2+ goals

74%

Ha Noi 3+ goals

49%

Yangon United 1+ goals

77%

Yangon United 2+ goals

44%

Yangon United 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ha Noi (draw refunded)

75%

Yangon United (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ha Noi at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Yangon United away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ha Noi attack 3.00 + Yangon United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Yangon United attack 2.22 + Ha Noi defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ha Noi scores more

62%

level

18%

Yangon United scores more

20%

Ha Noi at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff