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Ha Noi vs Viettel — V.League 1 2019

Ha Noi
Ha Noi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Viettel
Viettel
6/15/2025V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 25Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Ha Noi49%
×Draw25%
Viettel26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ha Noi
1.59
Viettel
1.10

Ha Noi creates 45% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 90 away

creates per match

Ha Noi
2.11
Viettel
1.22

allows per match

Ha Noi
0.99
Viettel
1.08

finishing

Ha Noi+0.00on par
Viettel+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ha Noi ↓

Viettel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ha Noi or draw
74%
Ha Noi or Viettel
75%
Draw or Viettel
51%

Winning margin

Ha Noi wins by 2+
25%
Viettel wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ha Noi 1+ goals
80%
Ha Noi 2+ goals
47%
Ha Noi 3+ goals
21%
Viettel 1+ goals
67%
Viettel 2+ goals
30%
Viettel 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ha Noi (draw refunded)
65%
Viettel (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ha Noi at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.99 · 91 matches

Viettel away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ha Noi attack 2.11 + Viettel defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.59

Viettel attack 1.22 + Ha Noi defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ha Noi scores more
49%
level
25%
Viettel scores more
26%

Ha Noi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Ha Noi 1–2 Viettel

Viettel beat Ha Noi 2-1 in V.League 1 on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy in Hà Nội (Hanoi).