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Ha Noi vs Tianjin Songjiang — AFC Cup 2018

Ha Noi
Ha Noi
FT
10 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
2/26/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy (Hang Day Stadium) (Hà Nội (Hanoi))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ha Noi90%
×Draw7%
Tianjin Songjiang3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ha Noi
4.09
Tianjin Songjiang
0.77

Ha Noi creates 431% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ha Noi
2.86
Tianjin Songjiang
0.67

allows per match

Ha Noi
0.86
Tianjin Songjiang
5.33

finishing

Ha Noi+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ha Noi ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Ha Noi or draw
97%
Ha Noi or Tianjin Songjiang
93%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
10%

Winning margin

Ha Noi wins by 2+
77%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Ha Noi 1+ goals
98%
Ha Noi 2+ goals
90%
Ha Noi 3+ goals
74%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
54%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
18%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ha Noi (draw refunded)
96%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ha Noi at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 0.67, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ha Noi attack 2.86 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 4.09

Tianjin Songjiang attack 0.67 + Ha Noi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Ha Noi scores more
90%
level
7%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
3%

Ha Noi at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ha Noi vs Tianjin Songjiang

Ha Noi beat Tianjin Songjiang 10-0 in AFC Cup on February 26, 2019.

The match was played at Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy (Hang Day Stadium) (Hà Nội (Hanoi)).