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Ha Noi vs Song Lam Nghe An — V.League 1 2019

Ha Noi
Ha Noi
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe An
3/13/2026V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 16Hang Day Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Ha Noi58%
×Draw23%
Song Lam Nghe An19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ha Noi
1.82
Song Lam Nghe An
0.94

Ha Noi creates 94% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 88 away

creates per match

Ha Noi
2.09
Song Lam Nghe An
0.90

allows per match

Ha Noi
0.98
Song Lam Nghe An
1.55

finishing

Ha Noi+0.00on par
Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ha Noi ↓

Song Lam Nghe An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ha Noi or draw
81%
Ha Noi or Song Lam Nghe An
77%
Draw or Song Lam Nghe An
42%

Winning margin

Ha Noi wins by 2+
33%
Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ha Noi 1+ goals
84%
Ha Noi 2+ goals
54%
Ha Noi 3+ goals
27%
Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
61%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
24%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ha Noi (draw refunded)
75%
Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ha Noi at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Song Lam Nghe An away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.55 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ha Noi attack 2.09 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.82

Song Lam Nghe An attack 0.90 + Ha Noi defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ha Noi scores more
58%
level
23%
Song Lam Nghe An scores more
19%

Ha Noi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Ha Noi 3–0 Song Lam Nghe An

Ha Noi beat Song Lam Nghe An 3-0 in V.League 1 on March 13, 2026.

The match was played at Hang Day Stadium in Hanoi.