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Ha Noi vs Sai Gon — V.League 1 2019

Ha Noi
Ha Noi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sai Gon
Sai Gon
6/30/2020V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 7Sân v?n d?ng Hàng Ð?y

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Ha Noi59%
×Draw22%
Sai Gon20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ha Noi
1.98
Sai Gon
1.06

Ha Noi creates 87% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 42 away

creates per match

Ha Noi
2.11
Sai Gon
1.12

allows per match

Ha Noi
0.99
Sai Gon
1.86

finishing

Ha Noi+0.00on par
Sai Gon+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ha Noi ↓

Sai Gon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ha Noi or draw
80%
Ha Noi or Sai Gon
78%
Draw or Sai Gon
41%

Winning margin

Ha Noi wins by 2+
35%
Sai Gon wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ha Noi 1+ goals
86%
Ha Noi 2+ goals
59%
Ha Noi 3+ goals
31%
Sai Gon 1+ goals
65%
Sai Gon 2+ goals
29%
Sai Gon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ha Noi (draw refunded)
75%
Sai Gon (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ha Noi at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.99 · 91 matches

Sai Gon away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ha Noi attack 2.11 + Sai Gon defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.98

Sai Gon attack 1.12 + Ha Noi defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ha Noi scores more
59%
level
22%
Sai Gon scores more
20%

Ha Noi at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ha Noi 0 – 1 Sai Gon

Sai Gon beat Ha Noi 1-0 in V.League 1 on June 30, 2020.

The match was played at Sân v?n d?ng Hàng Ð?y in Hanoi.