Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ha Noi vs Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh — Cup 2019

Ha Noi
Ha Noiadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
3/12/2024CupCup · Round of 16Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ha Noi70%
×Draw17%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ha Noi
2.50
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.00

Ha Noi creates 150% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ha Noi
3.20
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.40

allows per match

Ha Noi
0.60
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.80

finishing

Ha Noi+0.00on par
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ha Noi ↓

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ha Noi or draw
87%
Ha Noi or Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
83%
Draw or Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
30%

Winning margin

Ha Noi wins by 2+
47%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ha Noi 1+ goals
92%
Ha Noi 2+ goals
71%
Ha Noi 3+ goals
45%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1+ goals
63%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2+ goals
26%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ha Noi (draw refunded)
84%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ha Noi at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ha Noi attack 3.20 + Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.50

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh attack 1.40 + Ha Noi defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ha Noi scores more
70%
level
17%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh scores more
13%

Ha Noi at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ha Noi 2 – 1 Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

Ha Noi beat Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2-1 in Cup on March 12, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy in Hanoi.